August was full of movement, with sharp increases in both Arabica and Robusta prices. Arabica, in particular, recorded a new eye-catching rise, confirming that supply-side pressures remain strongly in place. Meanwhile, Robusta surged in the London market by an impressive rate exceeding all expectations, reflecting the tensions in the global coffee market. These jumps do not merely reflect the numbers; they reveal the dual nature of the market: production pressures on one side, and persistent demand on the other, making volatility the ruling factor.

Recent U.S. customs measures have added complexity, as some companies postponed purchasing decisions, while others extended contracts or redirected their operations to alternative markets. From our perspective as a green coffee importer, such shifts open up opportunities for more flexible purchasing strategies, allowing us to secure high-quality coffee during periods of reduced U.S. demand, giving our clients an advantage in price and timing.

At the heart of this equation stands Brazil, the largest player in global coffee production. Research and advisory centers have lowered their forecasts for Arabica production in the 2025/26 season, pointing to a significant decline compared to the previous season. Although the Conilon crop exceeded 25 million bags, achieving excellent results, it was insufficient to offset the Arabica decline, bringing Brazil’s total production to around 63 million bags—3% lower than last season. This decrease does not only mean lower numbers but also increased pressure on the availability of high-quality Arabica, which forms the foundation of the specialty coffee industry worldwide.

The climate had a clear impact on this decline. The heatwave that hit the country between February and March, combined with low rainfall in the second half of the season, directly affected productivity and reduced yields. With exports from the 2024/25 crop continuing at high levels, final stocks remained limited, opening the door for more severe price fluctuations in the coming period.

However, amid these challenges, a positive side emerged in the Brazilian local market. Rising prices contributed to increased commercial liquidity, and trading activity picked up across various regions. Momentum also returned to the FOB market to cover the needs of September and October. We view this activity as a strategic opportunity: higher prices encouraged producers to sell, while local traders intensified their transactions, giving importers a valuable window to secure green coffee in bulk before options shrink further due to limited stock.

On the weather front, recent days brought encouraging news. Major production regions in São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais received good rainfall, with forecasts indicating continuation through September and the potential for storms and heavy rains. These developments are expected to enhance soil moisture and support tree growth in the pre-flowering stage, the critical phase determining the initial characteristics of the 2026/27 crop. If these positive conditions persist, future seasons may achieve a better balance between supply and demand.

In conclusion, the global coffee market enters September carrying a mix of challenges and opportunities. Low stocks and reduced Brazilian production increase risk, while recent rainfall offers a glimmer of hope for a more stable season ahead. As the world swings between sharp rises and continuous fluctuations, we place our clients at the center of our strategy, reading indicators early and transforming them into tangible value. More than ever, now is the optimal time to secure high-quality green coffee—not only to guarantee supply but also to protect cost stability and prepare for seasons that may bring many surprises.

In this context, the need for a trusted partner who deeply understands market details and translates them into practical decisions to stabilize your business is more evident than ever. At Coffee Beans Co. Ltd, we place our clients at the core of our priorities, ensuring access to bulk green coffee from the best global sources, with careful monitoring of prices and crop quality. Our vision extends beyond securing coffee today; it is about building a long-term partnership that gives your roasteries and projects confidence and flexibility in navigating global market volatility.